The email from a reader named Liam arrived in late February. Subject line: “Are these prices real?” He’d just priced a summer trip to Greece. Flights from London to Athens: £450 return – up 40% from last year. Hotels in Santorini: £300 a night – up 60%. He was shocked. He asked me if he should wait for prices to drop.
I told him the truth: they won’t drop. Summer 2026 is shaping up to be the most expensive travel season in history. Demand is surging. Airlines are flying full. Hotels are booked months in advance. And inflation has pushed up the cost of everything – fuel, labour, food, insurance.
The Travel Budget Calculator can show you the difference between summer and shoulder season prices.
I ran Liam’s trip through the calculator for June (peak), September (shoulder), and November (low). June: £2,800 for flights and accommodation (7 nights). September: £1,900. November: £1,400. He could save £1,400 by shifting his trip by three months. But he wanted summer. He booked June anyway.
A friend of mine, a travel agent named Karen, told me that her clients are booking earlier than ever. “People are booking Christmas 2026 already,” she said in April. “Normally they’d book in September.” The fear of missing out is driving people to commit sooner.
Where costs are up the most
Flights. International airfare is up 25-40% compared to 2025, according to data I saw from a travel analytics firm – I forget the exact name. The reasons: fuel prices, pilot shortages, and post-pandemic demand. Europe to Asia routes are up the most. Europe to US is up moderately.
Hotels. Room rates are up 20-30% in popular European cities. Paris during the Olympics was an anomaly, but even non-Olympic cities saw increases. Lisbon, Porto, Madrid, Barcelona, Rome, Florence – all up.
Car rentals. This is the biggest shock. A weekly rental in Iceland that cost £300 in 2023 now costs £700. The rental car companies sold off fleets during the pandemic and haven’t fully rebuilt them. Demand exceeds supply.
Tours and activities. The cost of guided tours, museum entries, and day trips is up 15-20%. Some of this is inflation. Some of it is “revenge spending” – operators raising prices because they can.
The hidden cost increases
Travel insurance. Premiums are up 10-15% because medical costs are up.
Airport transfers. Private transfers from FCO airport to Rome centre: €60 in 2023, €85 in 2026.
Restaurant meals. A pizza that cost €12 in Naples now costs €15. A beer that cost €5 in Prague now costs €7.
The Trip Cost Estimator can help you adjust your daily budget for these increases.
Liam added 15% to his daily budget to account for inflation. His original daily estimate was £120. He raised it to £138.
How to beat the surge
Book early. Not “early” as in two months before. Early as in six months before. Liam booked his Greece trip in March for June. That’s considered late now. The savvy travellers booked in January.
Travel in shoulder season. May, September, and October are the sweet spots. The weather is still good. The crowds are smaller. The prices are 20-40% lower. A traveller named Sophie took her family to Italy in September. Her flights were £200 cheaper per person than July. Her hotel was £100 cheaper per night.
Use points and miles. If you have credit card points, this is the year to use them. The value of points hasn’t increased as fast as cash prices, so points are relatively more valuable. A reader named James booked a £1,200 flight with points that cost him 30,000 Avios – worth about £300 in cash.
Stay in less popular areas. In Rome, don’t stay near the Trevi Fountain. Stay in Trastevere or Testaccio. In Paris, avoid the 1st arrondissement. Try the 11th or 15th. The prices are 30-50% lower.
Cook some meals. Liam planned to eat out for every meal. I suggested he buy breakfast and lunch from a supermarket. He did. Saved €25 a day.
Use public transport. Airport taxis are expensive. The train from Athens airport to city centre is €9. A taxi is €50. Liam took the train.
The Multi-City Trip Cost Calculator can help you compare different itineraries.
Liam considered adding a day trip to Hydra. The ferry cost €60 return. The calculator showed him that the day trip would add 15% to his daily budget. He skipped it and spent that money on a nicer hotel room instead.
What not to do
Do not wait for last-minute deals. They don’t exist anymore in peak season. Airlines and hotels have yield management systems that raise prices as the travel date approaches, not lower them. A traveller named Anna waited until June to book her July trip to Croatia. She paid 50% more than her friend who booked in March.
Do not book non-refundable unless you’re certain. If there’s a chance you might cancel, pay a little extra for flexibility. A refundable flight might cost £50 more. That’s cheaper than losing a £500 ticket.
Do not overestimate your ability to “wing it.” Winging it works in low season. In high season, you’ll be sleeping in a train station or paying £400 for a last‑minute room.
What about 2027?
If you’re planning for 2027, book accommodation as soon as it becomes available – often 12 months in advance for hotels, 6-8 months for Airbnbs. Set price alerts on flight comparison sites. Use the Currency Budget Converter to watch exchange rates.
The euro is predicted to strengthen against the pound in late 2026. If you’re travelling to Europe in 2027, consider buying euros now. Liam didn’t. He paid €1.15 to the pound. If he’d bought euros six months earlier, the rate was €1.21. On a €1,000 trip, that’s a €60 difference.
Final thought
Liam went to Greece. He had a great time. He spent £3,200 instead of his planned £2,500. He said “it was worth it, but I wish I’d known about the price surge earlier.”
The surge isn’t going away. Demand is high. Prices are high. The only way to beat them is to plan ahead, be flexible with dates, and use the tools.
The Travel Budget Calculator won’t lower prices. But it will help you see the real numbers before you book.
